Was there really a great horse manure crisis in 1894?

Not in the form the popular story tells it. Horse manure was a genuine problem in 19th-century cities, but the claim that London or other cities faced a looming, unsolvable crisis in 1894 appears to be a modern myth. The famous Times prediction has never been found, and the newspaper itself said in 2018 that the attribution was erroneous. [1]

The phrase comes from a 2004 article by the historian Stephen Davies, published by the Foundation for Economic Education. It said a writer in The Times of London in 1894 estimated that in 50 years every street in London would be buried under nine feet of manure. Davies also described an urban planning conference in 1898 that supposedly ended early because nobody could solve the problem. [1] [2]

Davies gave no author and no specific citation for either claim. One blogger notes that the earliest mention online appears to be that 2004 piece, which used the tale to argue for personal freedom as a solution to problems. Another researcher found no references to the supposed panic from before 2004. [2] [3]

The Times article of 8 June 1894 that is sometimes linked to the story complained about dust and mud, not manure, and predicted no crisis. No record of the 1898 conference result is known, and one critic points out that it would predate the first recorded urban planning conferences by several years. A writer who questions the story more cautiously concedes it is not strictly impossible that such items existed, but notes that no article, minutes or contemporary sign of panic has been produced. [1] [3] [2]

Some websites still repeat the Times quotation as fact. [4]

The underlying nuisance was real. By 1880 New York had at least 150,000 horses, producing millions of pounds of manure daily, and observers described streets carpeted with it. Manure had once been a saleable fertilizer, and a 1893 complaint in London noted it had turned from an economic good into a disposal problem. Flies breeding in it added a public health concern. [5] [1]

Cities responded with ordinary measures such as regulation and street-cleaning crews. New York hired George E. Waring Jr., pushed for horses to be stabled overnight, and sold collected manure as fertilizer. Electric streetcars and motor vehicles then displaced horses, and cars outnumbered horses in New York by 1912. The 99% Invisible article adds that this shifted pollution rather than ending it. In 1896 an Italian paper, Corriere della Sera, already expected cars to remove manure from streets. [5] [3] [1]